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Oil Prices Surge Past Key Thresholds as Middle East War Drags On: WTI Tops $103, Brent Climbs Above $115
New York/London — Global oil prices jumped sharply on Monday, with the main US benchmark rising more than three percent to once again surpass USD 100 per barrel, while international Brent crude climbed above USD 115, as traders saw no immediate end to the month-long war in the Middle East and persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
A barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for May delivery rose 3.50 percent to USD 103.13 shortly after Asian markets opened. Meanwhile, North Sea Brent crude futures advanced 2.98 percent to USD 115.93.
The surge reflects ongoing uncertainty over energy supplies, as Iran has largely kept the Strait of Hormuz — a vital chokepoint carrying about 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas — effectively closed since the conflict began on February 28.
President Donald Trump claimed progress over the weekend, stating that Iran had agreed to allow the passage of 20 large oil tankers through the strait “out of a sign of respect.” He suggested the shipments would begin on Monday morning and continue over the next couple of days, potentially easing some pressure on global supplies. However, markets appeared skeptical, with traders pricing in the risk that any limited openings may not significantly restore flows amid continued military tensions.
The war, which has seen heavy US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and the killing of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has already caused one of the most dramatic monthly rallies in oil prices on record. Brent crude is on pace for its biggest percentage gain in a single month in history, surging over 50 percent since late February.
Analysts warn that prolonged disruption could push prices even higher, with some forecasts suggesting Brent could reach $130–$150 or more if the conflict escalates further or if additional infrastructure is targeted. Trump has repeatedly threatened to strike Iranian oil facilities, power plants, and the strategic Kharg Island export hub if a deal is not reached quickly.
Despite Trump’s optimistic comments aboard Air Force One — where he described the leadership changes in Iran (including the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader) as amounting to “regime change” — many market participants remain cautious. Limited tanker movements have so far failed to calm fears of a broader supply shock.
The price spike is already feeding through to higher fuel costs at the pump in the United States and elsewhere, raising concerns about inflation and economic slowdown risks worldwide.
As trading continues, attention remains focused on whether the promised oil shipments materialize in meaningful volumes and whether diplomatic efforts can produce a lasting ceasefire. For now, with the Strait of Hormuz still largely restricted and no clear resolution in sight, oil markets are braced for continued volatility.
This latest surge comes amid a highly turbulent period for energy commodities, where hopes of de-escalation have repeatedly clashed with on-the-ground realities of the conflict.
